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H1B for STEM MBA degree holder from US uni - 80% odds of clearing in 3 tries. Makes sense?

I'm applying to top MBA courses in USA. These are STEM certified, so I will get STEM OPT of 3 years and 3 shots at H1B.

Rough numbers - as per latest applications, 200,000 people apply for 85000 slots. Roughly a 40% chance.

Probability of not winning the lottery once - 0.6.

Probability of not winning in three times in a row = 0.6 * 0.6 * 0.6 = 0.216

Aka 20% chance of not winning the lottery in 3 tries. 80% chance of winning the lottery in three tries.

This ignores the below three points, each of which would only better my odds:

  • the fact that masters students get 2 shots in each lottery. This would put my chance of clearing lottery at 68% in one try and 96% in three tries.

  • 4 attempts at H1B if you get the job early enough

  • the new system being implemented

So as I see it, you have at least a 80% chance of winning the lottery within 3 years of STEM OPT. More realistically a 96% chance. Make sense?

submitted by /u/ueydusjjwqkaakka
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