I'm applying to top MBA courses in USA. These are STEM certified, so I will get STEM OPT of 3 years and 3 shots at H1B.
Rough numbers - as per latest applications, 200,000 people apply for 85000 slots. Roughly a 40% chance.
Probability of not winning the lottery once - 0.6.
Probability of not winning in three times in a row = 0.6 * 0.6 * 0.6 = 0.216
Aka 20% chance of not winning the lottery in 3 tries. 80% chance of winning the lottery in three tries.
This ignores the below three points, each of which would only better my odds:
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the fact that masters students get 2 shots in each lottery. This would put my chance of clearing lottery at 68% in one try and 96% in three tries.
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4 attempts at H1B if you get the job early enough
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the new system being implemented
So as I see it, you have at least a 80% chance of winning the lottery within 3 years of STEM OPT. More realistically a 96% chance. Make sense?
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/immigration/comments/msp7op/h1b_for_stem_mba_degree_holder_from_us_uni_80/